LA -MELBOURNE 2018 CUP
Melbourne Cup winning trainer Charlie Appleby reveals Cross Counter might return in 2019
CROSS COUNTER is likely to chase successive Melbourne Cup victories as Charlie Appleby revealed Joseph O’Brien’s triumph last season with Rekindling formed a critical part of Godolphin’s Flemington coup yesterday.
Elated at delivering the Cup for the first time to Godolphin patron Sheikh Mohammed, Appleby said lightly-raced Cross Counter had the perfect profile to continue racing internationally.
“He’s a young horse, and it was only the eighth run of his career there yesterday,” Appleby said on Wednesday morning.
MELBOURNE CUP — FINAL FINISHING ORDER
1. Cross Counter (prizemoney $4 million)
2. Marmelo ($1 million)
3. A Prince Of Arran ($500,000)
4. Finche ($250,000)
5. Rostropovich ($175,000)
6. Youngstar ($150,000)
7. Sir Charles Road ($150,000)
8. Best Solution ($150,000)
9. Muntahaa ($150,000)
10. Ventura Storm ($150,000)
11. Yucatan ($150,000)
12. Nakeeta ($150,000)
14. Chestnut Coat
15. Vengeur Masque
16. Magic Circle
17. Who Shot Thebarman
18. Sound Check
20. Ace High
23. Red Cardinal
Our Tip is Youngstar who has wet track form with each way of Sir Charles Road if the track gets more rain.
Flemington 03 11 2018
Every race is a GROUP race.
The day for GROUP racing- Victoria Derby day at Flemington where all nine races are at Group level.
Four of the nine events are Group I races, comprising the Victoria Derby (2500m), Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m), Empire Rose Stakes (1600m) and Kennedy Mile (1600m).
Caulfield Cup finish.
Caulfield Cup 2018
The Caulfield Cup is a Melbourne Racing Club Group 1 Thoroughbred horse race held under handicap conditions although the MRC is in the process to turn the race into weight for age (WFA) conditions, for horses aged three years old and older, over a distance of 2400 metres. It is held at Caulfield Racecourse, Melbourne.
Look out for the overseas raiders that are new to our shores may be value.
CHESTNUT COAT (JPN)
SOUND CHECK (GER)
RED VERDON (USA)
The prizemoney is A$5,000,000.
LA Top Rater wins the Everest “Twice”!
Redzell ploughs through the mud Heavy 9, leading all the way.
Nothing making ground except for Osborne Bull on the outside rail.
Returning to scale, McEvoy happy he’s just picked up 5% of $6,000,000 for his efforts riding the winner $300,000 for 72 seconds of work.
The trophy and the Champ.
U S NAVY FLAG-IMPORT HERE FOR THE RICHEST RACE IN THE WORLD
LA features the northern hemisphere import and puts the spotlight on the leading juvenile, US Navy Flag has been crowned the leading juvenile of 2017 following the publication of the Longines World’s Best Racehorse rankings and the horse has been entered for THE EVEREST.
The Aidan O’Brien-trained colt won both the Middle Park and Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket in the autumn and earned a rating of 122, despite finishing down the field in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on his final start of the year.
His mark puts him on a par with O’Brien’s Churchill, who was the leading two-year-old 12 months ago and went on to win both the English and Irish 2000 Guineas.
US Navy Flag is also the 10th champion juvenile O’Brien has been responsible for and he dominates the two-year-old standings, with 15 horses featuring in the top 45.
He also has the next-best performer in Racing Post Trophy victor Saxon Warrior, the current favourite for this year’s Guineas and Derby and who is on 119, 1lb ahead of the John Gosden-trained Roaring Lion, who was beaten just a neck at Doncaster.
LA will be getting the horse data and seeing if the import stacks up against his rivals here downunder.
U S Navy Flag is an American-bred, Irish-trained Thoroughbred racehorse. In 2017 he became the first horse in 35 years to win both the Middle Park Stakes and the Dewhurst Stakes. As two-year-old he was beaten in his first four racecourse appearances, including the Coventry Stakes before winning a maiden race in July. Wikipedia
Born: 6 February 2015
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Sire: War Front
Dam: Misty For Me
Earnings: 848,345 GBP
Owner: Derrick Smith, Susan Magnier & Michael Tabor
30th Sep 2018 UNDERWOOD STAKES
Ajax was a champion Australian bred Thoroughbred racehorse and sire, who won 18 consecutive races before he was defeated at the odds of 40/1 on, causing a huge racing sensation.
He had wins from 5 furlongs (1,000 metres) to 1½ miles (2,400 metres), equalled the Australasian record for a mile (1,600 metres), and created three new race records. At stud in Australia, Ajax proved to be a good sire.
He was then sold as a 14-year-old horse and exported to the United States before he was later sold to Bing Crosby and Lin Howard.
Ajax was inducted into the Australian Racing Hall of Fame in 2004.
29 Sept -Serious Racing Today with some quality horses.
Flight (1940–1953) was an Australian Thoroughbred racemare that was the highest stakes winning mare in Australasia. Her courageous efforts made her a crowd favourite during the post World War II era and she had victories over some of the great horses of the time including Shannon, Bernborough, Royal Gem and Russia.
She was a bay daughter of Royal Step her dam was the unplaced mare, Lambent (NZ) by Tractor (GB). A half-sister to Flight, Sparkle (NZ) by Colonel Cygnus (GB), won the 1940 Dunedin Cup. Flight was inbred to Chelandry and also to St Simon in the fourth and fifth (4×5) generations. She was purchased at the 1942 Sydney yearling sales by Brian Crowley (a future chairman of the AJC) for 60 guineas.
22 Sept 2018 2018 Golden Rose $1 Million Dollar race.
2018 SPRING CARNIVAL-G1 RACING AND MORE TO COME. Upcoming Group racing 15 September 2018
Ming Dynasty is the feature race of the day at Randwick.
Ming Dynasty was a notable Australian Thoroughbred racehorse, who won the 1977 and 1980 Caulfield Cups.
He was sired by Planet Kingdom (AUS), his dam Chow Mein (AUS) was by Chris (GB).
Part owned and trained by Bart Cummings from 76 career starts he won 17 races. As well as his two Caulfield Cups he also won two VRCAustralian Cups (1978 and 1980), the 1978 AJC Queen Elizabeth Stakes and the Metropolitan Handicap in the same year. As a seven-year-old in 1980 in the Caulfield Cup, starting at 50-1, the gelding carried 58 kg and beat Melbourne Cup winner, Hyperno, and champion Kingston Town to join an elite group to take two Caulfield Cups, the others being Rising Fast (1954–55), Whittier (1922–25), Uncle Sam (1912-1914), Poseidon (1906–07), Hymettus (1898-1901) and Paris (1892-1894).
When retired from racing he became a clerk of the course mount at AJC meetings. Died 28 May 2002
Winx Warwick Stakes 2018
The 2018 ATC WARWICK STAKES is a Group II held over a distance of 1400 metres at Randwick Racecourse with total prize money of $250,000.00.
One punter has placed a bet of $140k on Winx at the odds of $1.12 with a potential collect of $16,800 nett profit, pretty gutsy bet., good luck dude
Wallers comments during the week,
Winx drew barrier five for Saturday, which Waller said was “perfect”, and while one of only three unplaced runs in her 35-race career has come over 1400m, in the 2015 Surround Stakes, the trainer had no qualms about the distance this time around.
“Absolutely perfect, she’s as sharp as any sprinter,” he said. “The only time she is vulnerable is when there is no pressure, and that’s at trials.”
Waller said her two trials, and an exhibition gallop at Randwick last Saturday, had removed all the “nervous energy” and she was “primed” for this race.
“She’s spot on, she’s ready to go,” he said.
“We’ve probably put an extra 2 per cent in there somewhere. We didn’t take this race lightly, being a Group 1, and fortunately we haven’t because it’s a strong race.”
WINX -Going for 23rd Win in a row.
Winx will start with eight rivals in her return to racing in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m) at Randwick on Saturday.
Winx, is $1.08 or 1/11 odds on red, so for every $11 you put on her if she wins you will get $12 back, pre-draw, will jump from barrier six with regular rider Hugh Bowman in the saddle.
The world’s best horse on turf will be shooting for her 23rd win in succession and a record 16th Group One victory.
Stablemates,Who Shot Thebarman and Libran will join their superstar stablemate in the $600,000 feature.
Vinland, the lowest-rated horse in the field with a handicap rating of just 67, is the only three-year-old in the field, making the trip up from Melbourne after finishing 11th in the G3 CS Hayes Stakes (1400m).
Interestingly, the race is the first leg of the Randwick quaddie, so if she gets rolled, it will knock a few out of the exotics.
Lengths Ahead Dutch System -L.A.D.S
Well it’s time to see how the Lengths Ahead Dutching System is going, and yes we have given it a pretty corny name ….L.A.D.S.
We kicked off the “Live” betting using BETFAIR account as the bookie and a automated betting BOT that costs us $50 a month subscription and kicked off on the 1st of October 2017.
How it works
- Tipped $100 into a BETFAIR account.
- Betfair is our bookie using actual cash.
- Betting BOT works with the BETFAIR account (allows you to pre load bets) and also has the calculation imbedded in the software online and places the bet according to the current win or loss sequence.
- Start stake was .15c and increased as the bank increased its now $2
- Selections from the LA Data Base (this also is a critical component that works together with the other parts) BOT and BETFAIR
- Setup the BOT using a “Dutch Recovery” option within the BOT.
- Started LADS on 01/10/2017- 39 days ago.
We had 6 losing days over the 39 days period and our worst day was Day 31 with a -$55.34 loss, the other 4 losses were
We had 2 days not betting that was due to the BOT server not working.
SEE FIGURE 2 for our day positions
The initial bank was $100
This is a online software prescription that cost us $50 a month and is also an integral part of and important tool in the LADS….(LIL).
Screen shot of the BOT
Current Position (+)
Figure 1 :$542.61 in the Betfair account this includes the $100 start bank.
The stake initially was .15c and has been ratcheted up over the days and is currently @ $2.00 stake bet.
As you can see we have had steady growth with a fair amount of effort, one would say way too much effort for the return, however we are not complaining.
What we are trying to do is a proof of concept and see if this can work in the long run with patients, armed with LA DATA and few tools… and not end up losing your cash.
What’s the go, how does it work?
We use the LA DATA and this is one of the KEY component to the whole process and we back the selections most suited (in our opinion) to a particular race (and we have rules).
One or more, up to 4 selections in one race and pretty much bet until you strike a winner, the BOT then resets to the original stake and this just repeats over for every trade (bet).
It gets little nerve wracking when we hit a sequence of 18 and 21 losers (yes losers) which we did and recovered from it.
And the bank recovered to positive, the key is start slow and low, meaning low stake and slowly increase it over time when the bank increases.
It’s a number game and that’s why you need to have a very steady and low stake initially, this can get you through to a recovery where the losses are realise and then you hit a winner.
Another trick is when you hit a run of losers bets, it’s best to keep away from short priced favorites to get the recovery (Win bet), the reason why you should avoid short priced favorites is that the BOT will try and recover what have been lost, and if you select a few favorites and they lose the bank can quickly disappear.
If the LA RATER is a short priced favorite (say $1.60) the BOT will automatically place a bet to recover the losing sequence and if you are 15 losses in, the bet can be all of your BANK to get a recovery.
When the losing streak continues the LA Data comes into play, if the horse runs good sectionals and also time this is what we look for your not just having a “mug guess” and also the Dutching allows you to place one or more horse and the likelihood of a recovery is higher.
Also it’s not a set and forget method, it’s better to watch as it happens, and you can select higher odds LA RATERS and recover, the trick is stopping when you get your daily win position, and when you lose don’t panic as the recovery will swing back.
Horses doesn’t know their price and if it has natural speed, good sectionals it’s more than just guessing, we have been doing it this way on four different times thus far seems to work, another important “learning” is keeping the stake lower when starting and having $100 bank setting the stake at .15 c enables you to ride out the losses, and don’t kid yourself it will come, and so will the recovery.
What is the LA DATA.
Well is pretty much what selects some of the long priced winners that gloat about now and again, and without the three components LA DATA, BOT , BETFAIR and fair amount of patience and not being GREEDY, has got us to this stage…well we will see next edition at the end of the month.
We have been keeping up database of results and that’s what enables us to have the edge.
FIGURE 2 DAY POSITION.
Below on the left is the losing days and amounts, the right hand side is the positive day positions.
Key learning, stop when the day is positive as there is always another race.
DON’T BE GREEDY.
“Easy easy kisim monkey”
As we/they say in PNG……”Easy easy kisim monkey”….translated slow and steady.
We will keep it going for another calendar month and see what transpires.
Watch out for the update December 1st 2017.
LA ALL THE WAY 😉
Where you take the reins.