Winx Warwick Stakes 2018
The 2018 ATC WARWICK STAKES is a Group II held over a distance of 1400 metres at Randwick Racecourse with total prize money of $250,000.00.
One punter has placed a bet of $140k on Winx at the odds of $1.12 with a potential collect of $16,800 nett profit, pretty gutsy bet., good luck dude
Wallers comments during the week,
Winx drew barrier five for Saturday, which Waller said was “perfect”, and while one of only three unplaced runs in her 35-race career has come over 1400m, in the 2015 Surround Stakes, the trainer had no qualms about the distance this time around.
“Absolutely perfect, she’s as sharp as any sprinter,” he said. “The only time she is vulnerable is when there is no pressure, and that’s at trials.”
Waller said her two trials, and an exhibition gallop at Randwick last Saturday, had removed all the “nervous energy” and she was “primed” for this race.
“She’s spot on, she’s ready to go,” he said.
“We’ve probably put an extra 2 per cent in there somewhere. We didn’t take this race lightly, being a Group 1, and fortunately we haven’t because it’s a strong race.”
WINX -Going for 23rd Win in a row.
Winx will start with eight rivals in her return to racing in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m) at Randwick on Saturday.
Winx, is $1.08 or 1/11 odds on red, so for every $11 you put on her if she wins you will get $12 back, pre-draw, will jump from barrier six with regular rider Hugh Bowman in the saddle.
The world’s best horse on turf will be shooting for her 23rd win in succession and a record 16th Group One victory.
Stablemates,Who Shot Thebarman and Libran will join their superstar stablemate in the $600,000 feature.
Vinland, the lowest-rated horse in the field with a handicap rating of just 67, is the only three-year-old in the field, making the trip up from Melbourne after finishing 11th in the G3 CS Hayes Stakes (1400m).
Interestingly, the race is the first leg of the Randwick quaddie, so if she gets rolled, it will knock a few out of the exotics.
Lengths Ahead Dutch System -L.A.D.S
Well it’s time to see how the Lengths Ahead Dutching System is going, and yes we have given it a pretty corny name ….L.A.D.S.
We kicked off the “Live” betting using BETFAIR account as the bookie and a automated betting BOT that costs us $50 a month subscription and kicked off on the 1st of October 2017.
How it works
- Tipped $100 into a BETFAIR account.
- Betfair is our bookie using actual cash.
- Betting BOT works with the BETFAIR account (allows you to pre load bets) and also has the calculation imbedded in the software online and places the bet according to the current win or loss sequence.
- Start stake was .15c and increased as the bank increased its now $2
- Selections from the LA Data Base (this also is a critical component that works together with the other parts) BOT and BETFAIR
- Setup the BOT using a “Dutch Recovery” option within the BOT.
- Started LADS on 01/10/2017- 39 days ago.
We had 6 losing days over the 39 days period and our worst day was Day 31 with a -$55.34 loss, the other 4 losses were
We had 2 days not betting that was due to the BOT server not working.
SEE FIGURE 2 for our day positions
The initial bank was $100
This is a online software prescription that cost us $50 a month and is also an integral part of and important tool in the LADS….(LIL).
Screen shot of the BOT
Current Position (+)
Figure 1 :$542.61 in the Betfair account this includes the $100 start bank.
The stake initially was .15c and has been ratcheted up over the days and is currently @ $2.00 stake bet.
As you can see we have had steady growth with a fair amount of effort, one would say way too much effort for the return, however we are not complaining.
What we are trying to do is a proof of concept and see if this can work in the long run with patients, armed with LA DATA and few tools… and not end up losing your cash.
What’s the go, how does it work?
We use the LA DATA and this is one of the KEY component to the whole process and we back the selections most suited (in our opinion) to a particular race (and we have rules).
One or more, up to 4 selections in one race and pretty much bet until you strike a winner, the BOT then resets to the original stake and this just repeats over for every trade (bet).
It gets little nerve wracking when we hit a sequence of 18 and 21 losers (yes losers) which we did and recovered from it.
And the bank recovered to positive, the key is start slow and low, meaning low stake and slowly increase it over time when the bank increases.
It’s a number game and that’s why you need to have a very steady and low stake initially, this can get you through to a recovery where the losses are realise and then you hit a winner.
Another trick is when you hit a run of losers bets, it’s best to keep away from short priced favorites to get the recovery (Win bet), the reason why you should avoid short priced favorites is that the BOT will try and recover what have been lost, and if you select a few favorites and they lose the bank can quickly disappear.
If the LA RATER is a short priced favorite (say $1.60) the BOT will automatically place a bet to recover the losing sequence and if you are 15 losses in, the bet can be all of your BANK to get a recovery.
When the losing streak continues the LA Data comes into play, if the horse runs good sectionals and also time this is what we look for your not just having a “mug guess” and also the Dutching allows you to place one or more horse and the likelihood of a recovery is higher.
Also it’s not a set and forget method, it’s better to watch as it happens, and you can select higher odds LA RATERS and recover, the trick is stopping when you get your daily win position, and when you lose don’t panic as the recovery will swing back.
Horses doesn’t know their price and if it has natural speed, good sectionals it’s more than just guessing, we have been doing it this way on four different times thus far seems to work, another important “learning” is keeping the stake lower when starting and having $100 bank setting the stake at .15 c enables you to ride out the losses, and don’t kid yourself it will come, and so will the recovery.
What is the LA DATA.
Well is pretty much what selects some of the long priced winners that gloat about now and again, and without the three components LA DATA, BOT , BETFAIR and fair amount of patience and not being GREEDY, has got us to this stage…well we will see next edition at the end of the month.
We have been keeping up database of results and that’s what enables us to have the edge.
FIGURE 2 DAY POSITION.
Below on the left is the losing days and amounts, the right hand side is the positive day positions.
Key learning, stop when the day is positive as there is always another race.
DON’T BE GREEDY.
“Easy easy kisim monkey”
As we/they say in PNG……”Easy easy kisim monkey”….translated slow and steady.
We will keep it going for another calendar month and see what transpires.
Watch out for the update December 1st 2017.
LA ALL THE WAY 😉
Where you take the reins.